Email this article Indonesian Strategic Leadership 5.0 Amidst Thucydides Trap (Dynamic System Approach)
(1) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(2) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(3) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(4) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(5) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(6) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
(7) The Republic of Indonesian Defense University
Abstract
The Indo-Pacific region is experiencing quite sharp conflicts. The power rivalry between these two countries also dragged Indonesia into Thucydides' trap because they joined an alliance with the aim of regional cooperation. This research aims to analyze the tendencies and projections of various aspects of the US vs China towards Indonesia in determining strategic leadership decisions 5.0. The method used is a dynamic system using 2018 time series data and projections up to 2050. The variables used by the Loewy Institute are Economic Relations, Defense Network, Diplomatic Influence, Cultural Influence, Economic Capability, Military Capability, Resilience, and Future Resources. The research results show that the model and tendencies of the US vs China rivalry are influenced by several factors. From 2018 to 2050, it is known that the US vs China rivalry shows fluctuating conditions. Novelty in this research includes 8 scenarios from (1) economic relations such as enhancing multilateral diplomacy and dialogue, promoting regional economic and security cooperation, (2)Defense Network such as strengthening economic, political, and security relations, (3)Diplomatic Influence such as diplomatic approach and regional cooperation, (4)Cultural Influence utilizing US cultural influence to strengthen diplomacy and international cooperation, (5)Economic Capability such as Indonesia can be an effective mediator between the US and China, (6)Military Capability such as strategic leadership 5.0 relies on diplomacy and coalitions, (7)Resiliance and (8)Future Resources such as effective mediator and promotes bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In conclusion, the US vs China rivalry will experience fluctuating developments.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Al Syahrin, M. N. (2018). China Versus the United States: Interpretation of Superpower Security Rivalry in the Asia Pacific Region. Global & Strategic Journal, 12(1).
Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and Tiongkok Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
Anwar, K. (2011). Epistemology of International Relations: Building a Framework for the Field of Study. Journal of International Relations, 2(2), 79-100.
Buo, Z., & Buergin, L. (2018). The Belt And Road Initiative In Southeast Asia: Its Impact On ASEAN, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, And Thailand (Vol. 1). Springer.
BPS. (2021). Indonesian Foreign Trade Statistics January-December 2020. https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2021/02/15/1703/hasil-proksi-pertanian-januari-2021-.html
BKPM. (2021). Realized Investment According to Country of Origin 2016-2020. https://www.bkpm.go.id/id/statistik/investasi-realisasimeski/2016-2020
Bwir, W. (2021). Indonesia's Strategic Leadership 5.0 as a Solution to Facing Thucydides' Trappists. Journal of Defense and National Defense, 1(1), 34-45.
Davis, T. J. (2015). Cybersecurity And Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs To Know. Oxford University Press.
Gompert, D. C., & Kelly, T. (2019). Conflict With Tiongkok: Prospects, Consequences, And Strategies For Deterrence. US Naval Institute Press.
Griffin, C. (2017). Energy Innovation as a Tool of American Economic and National Security. American Security Project.
He, K., & Feng, H. (2018). Managing The Thucydides Trap: Chinese Perspectives On Power Transition And Peace. The Chinese Journal Of International Politics, 11(3), 277–300.
Irawanto, D. W. (2018). “The Role of the United States Government in Undermining China's Economic Growth.†Global Dynamics, 3(2), 303-318.
Johnson, R., & Sarbahi, V. (2012). The Relationship Between Economic Capability and GDP. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(3), 235-258.
Kompas. (2021, February 14). RI-China Achieve the Largest Trade Value During the Pandemic. https://money.kompas.com/read/2021/02/14/060000926/ri-tiongkok-capai-nilai-perdagangan-terbesar-during-pandemic
Krasner, S. D. (1978). International Leverage and Economic Capability. International Organization, 32(2), 439-464.
Lye, L. T., & Lam, G. (2020). Tiongkok's Belt And Road Initiative In Southeast Asia: Perspectives From Southeast Asian Countries And Key Player Businesses. Journal Of International Commerce, Economics And Policy, 11(02), 1950022.
Matahom, H., Espiridion, E., Einsiedel, S., & Susanto, E. (2021). Indonesia’s “Pivot to the Southâ€: Implications for ASEAN and Beyond. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.
TNI Commander. (2020, March 20). TNI and China thank the Official Rafi Arms Bank for their support and cooperation. https://www.tni.mil.id/view-45381-tni-dan-tiongkok-terimakasih-atas-dukungan-dan-kerjasamanya-resmi-rafin-bank-senjata.html
Posen, B. R. (2011). The Impact of Military Capability on National Security. Security Studies, 20(1), 110-132.
Pranoto, M. Y. (2020). “The Role Of ASEAN In Managing US-Tiongkok Rivalry: Challenges And Opportunities.†Jurnal Global Strategis, 14(2), 131-149.
Saputra, Y. E. (2021). Get to know AUKUS, the Trident Pact to Strengthen Australia's Military in the Indo-Pacific. https://dunia.tempo.co/read/1507135/mengenal-aukus-pakta-trisula-untuk-memperkuat-militer-australia-di-indo-pasifik
Wibowo, R. (2018). Asia Pacific in the Vortex of Global Powers. https://theglobal-review.com/asia-pasifik-dalam-pusaran-kekuatan-kekuatan-global/
SIPRI. (2021). Asia: Major Increase In Arms Imports Comes From The USA And China. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/asia-major-increase-arms-imports-comes-usa-and-tiongkok
Smith, J. (2019). The Stock Flow Diagram of Economic Relations. Economic Review, 21(4), 567-589.
Sonny. (2020). INDONESIA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA TRADE WAR. Renaissance Journal | Volume 5 No. 01.
Schweller, R. L. (2017). World Politics After Crisis And Beyond The Thucydides Trap. International Studies Quarterly, 61(3), 579-589.
Wang, Y. (2018). Tiongkok’s Renewable Energy Revolution: What Beijing is Doing and What It Means for the United States. Routledge.
Zuniga, C. (2019). The Thucydides Trap And The New US-Tiongkok Cold War. Centre Of Geopolitics Of Global
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34007/jehss.v6i3.2085
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of Education, Humaniora and Social Sciences (JEHSS)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Journal of Education, Humaniora and Social Sciences (JEHSS)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License